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NIA SSEN 0063: VFES - Vulnerability Future Energy Scenarios

Key Activities

Vulnerability Future Energy Scenarios (VFES) aims to better understand and forecast potential changes and impacts to vulnerability using innovative forecasting techniques, as current Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) don’t effectively take consumer vulnerability into account. The project has delivered 3 research reports which have informed changes to our DFES for 2024.

Expected Benefits

VFES is a vulnerability-based project with aims of benefiting consumers in vulnerable situations by predicting the scale and location of such situations as well as what new situations may cause vulnerability. This is a research project to assess the initial viability of the approach.

If successful, VFES could inform better DFES and may also allow better informed investment planning which takes vulnerability into account and won’t leave vulnerable customers and communities behind.

Progress

VFES was based on three key pieces of research:

  • The Smith Institute concluded Machine Learning activities attaining a mathematically sound and data driven understanding of the vulnerability landscape across SSEN’s areas of operation.
  • Foresighting work by a team from Imperial College London produced a report that explores how lifestyles might change in the future, and how this will shape our relationships with energy. It delivers a set of strategic visions for the energy sector that can be used as tools to embed vulnerability considerations into future network planning.
  • An expert review compared the Machine Learning and Academic Research, along with the differing messages coming from calculations and foresighting. The review produced a paper highlighting where there is commonality between the research methods and suggestions that can be used within the energy industry to benefit consumers.

The project successfully delivered changes, fresh insights, and data into our DFES for 2024.

Collaborators

  • Imperial College London
  • The Smith Institute
  • National Energy Action

Project Budget

£144,000

Start/End Date

2022 – 2023

Project Manager

Simon O’Loughlin

NIA SSEN 0063 VFES – Vulnerability Future Energy Scenarios PEA
NIA SSEN 0063 VFES – Vulnerability Future Energy Scenarios PEA
AuthorSimon O'Loughlin
Summary
PEA Document for VFES - Vulnerability Future Energy Scenarios
Publication dateAugust 2022
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VFES Future Vulnerability Report from the From Imperial College London
VFES Future Vulnerability Report from the From Imperial College London
Summary
VFES Future Vulnerability Report from the From Imperial College London
Publication date30/04/2024
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VFES Final Report – NEA Insights and Recommendations from National Energy Action
VFES Final Report – NEA Insights and Recommendations from National Energy Action
Summary
VFES Final Report - NEA Insights and Recommendations - From National Energy Action
Publication date30/04/2024
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VFES Machine Learning Discovery of Vulnerability Signatures Report from the Smith Institute
VFES Machine Learning Discovery of Vulnerability Signatures Report from the Smith Institute
Summary
Machine Learning Discovery of Vulnerability Signatures Report from the Smith Institute
Publication date30/04/2024
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