NIA SSEN 0045 Future Fiscal Forecasting

Key Activities

This project will look to implement a new forecasting model to help inform future pricing decisions across SSEN and the wider industry. The project will test the hypothesis that the use of GB Settlement sourced ‘fiscal’ metering (referring to recording electrical energy flow for each half hour for Settlement (Half Hourly Metering Systems)) in combination with SCADA data and weather data will lead to more accurate forecasts for fiscal purposes. The project will use the above data to:

Forecast energy consumption for a Distribution Service Area (DSA) and disaggregate this into the corresponding Grid Supply Points (GSPs) e.g. the SEPD DSA and 18 GSPs; and
Forecast energy consumption for a sample of HV feeders with a high uptake of demand or generation (two generation-dominated, and two demand-dominated).

Expected Outcomes

Such a forecasting solution, utilising advanced data analytics techniques, has the potential to develop more detailed forecasting to help maintain accurate billing for customers. It could also improve the forecasting of Low Carbon Technologies; potentially facilitating their uptake.

Progress

This project has concluded by completing:

An assessment of the availability and suitability of current and future data sources which could provide more detailed fiscal forecasting of energy volumes
An assessment of methodology to be used; and
A quantitative evaluation of the level of accuracy of the new forecasting model.