NIA SSEN 0030: Whole-System Growth Scenario Modelling

Key activities

Understand the possible patterns of change over a two-decade horizon in the distribution networks served by three GSPs in the nominated areas. Create a whole system modelling methodology, and subsequently three specific area models, for anticipating the impact of these changes and the options for responding to them, in various local Future Energy Scenarios. Demonstrate a methodology that allows the two-way transfer of knowledge and understanding between network operators and those that make investment decisions in the areas served by the network, to facilitate efficient whole system planning. Apply learning from projects in other regions to assess their value for reducing overall system costs and risks in the three areas, and to identify investment triggers for network improvements.

Expected outcomes

A whole-system methodology is developed which enables a ground-up model to be constructed of a distribution area, looking forward for 20 years or more, under various scenarios, which can inform investment planning and decision-making. The scenario analysis allows the company to examine the scope for applying flexible and distributed energy resources to meet the new DSO responsibilities in the areas modelled.

Improved understanding is gained of whole-system factors including the extension of the gas supply network and other utility developments. Acknowledgment from local decision makers of the value of the methodology in allowing them to make the best decisions from a whole system perspective. Dissemination of the outputs to all stakeholders, with continuing engagement.