NIA SSEN 0030 Whole-System Growth Scenario Modelling

Key Activities

Understand the possible patterns of change over a two-decade horizon in the distribution networks served by three GSPs in the nominated areas. Create a whole system modelling methodology, and subsequently three specific area models, for anticipating the impact of these changes and the options for responding to them, in various local Future Energy Scenarios. Demonstrate a methodology that allows the two-way transfer of knowledge and understanding between network operators and those that make investment decisions in the areas served by the network, to facilitate efficient whole system planning. Apply learning from projects in other regions to assess their value for reducing overall system costs and risks in the three areas, and to identify investment triggers for network improvements.

Expected Outcomes

A whole-system methodology is developed which enables a ground-up model to be constructed of a distribution area, looking forward for 20 years or more, under various scenarios, which can inform investment planning and decision-making. The scenario analysis allows the company to examine the scope for applying flexible and distributed energy resources to meet the new DSO responsibilities in the areas modelled.

Improved understanding is gained of whole-system factors including the extension of the gas supply network and other utility developments. Acknowledgment from local decision makers of the value of the methodology in allowing them to make the best decisions from a whole system perspective. Dissemination of the outputs to all stakeholders, with continuing engagement.

Progress

The key findings/conclusions from the project are:

The expenditure by the DNO on general reinforcement is relatively small. The expenditure by SSEN on 33kV/11kV transformer upgrades and replacements which is estimated by the model is relatively small with respect to the overall capital expenditure on all network and demand-side activities in the region. This is acommon finding across all of Dundee, Fort William and Islay.

The current trading price for carbon emissions would not itself drive change. The model only includes a small number of actors which are directly exposed to the traded price of carbon emissions, with the most likely being Lochaber Smelter and other key industrial stakeholders. The party most directly exposed to the carbon price remains large generators and large industrial loads through the Large Combustion Plant15 and Industrial Emissions Directives. Nevertheless, the model shows that if all demand-side activity were exposed to the carbon price, it is not enough at present to drive a different outcome (when joint carbon and cost optimisation are requested in the model) to today’s business-as-usual outcome (where cost optimisation alone is requested).

Demand-side measures such as time of use tariffs, heat pumps and efficient home appliances appear to be the most cost-effective. Based upon the social benefits rating which we have offered as a starting point for discussion with stakeholders, and which identifies fuel poverty and air quality as the highest priority policy drivers in addition to carbon emissions, demand-side measures offer the most cost-effective carbon reductions, whilst delivering wider social benefits and not creating unreasonable general reinforcement costs to SSEN. This is a common finding across all of Dundee, Fort William and Islay.